An Iowa Poll conducted for The Des Moines Register shows former Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) leading the pack amongst likely Iowa caucus voters. Yes, this is an early poll, but if you’re Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, this is not good news. Only 10% of likely caucus participants say that if the caucuses were held today, they would vote for him.

Former U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina leads a list of potential Democratic presidential candidates while Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack holds fourth place, trailing Edwards by 20 points in an early test of support among likely Iowa caucus participants.

A new Iowa Poll conducted for The Des Moines Register shows that Edwards, the runner-up in the Iowa Democratic caucuses two years ago and a frequent visitor to the state since then, is the choice of 30 percent of Iowans who say they are likely to take part in the January 2008 caucuses.

U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York follows on Edwards’ heels with 26 percent in the Iowa Poll.

Experts say it’s the first poll showing anyone besides Clinton as the preferred Democrat in the race for the White House.
U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, who used his victory in the 2004 caucuses as a springboard to the Democratic presidential nomination that year, is a distant third in the Iowa Poll with 12 percent.

Vilsack, despite getting good marks in previous polls for the job he’s done in two terms as governor, receives relatively tepid support from his home state in the Register’s new presidential poll, taken May 29 to June 1. Ten percent of likely caucus participants say that if the caucuses were held today, they would vote for him.

Five other potential Democratic presidential candidates listed in the poll bring up the rear with no more than 3 percent each.

Iowa is important. It is still VERY early, so this poll does not have much significance. However, it does show what we all know, Sen. Edwards still has strong support in Iowa and his rivals will have to play catch-up.

Flashback: DoubleSpeak talks Iowa politics with Des Moines Register columnist David Yepsen. Have a listen.

Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) is running for President of the United States. He says it everywhere he goes; at the supermarket, on FOX News and rumors have it that he even hums ‘hail to the chief’ in the shower.

I have been skeptical of another Biden run; I haven’t seen a place for him to gain traction in what will most certainly be a very crowded primary. However, after watching Sen. Biden On C-SPAN in South Carolina this past week, I not only think he could play very well in that crucial southern primary, I think he looks and sounds like a strong candidate. His stump speech is re-tooled and includes many references to his personal experiences in government, as well as some emotional tributes to his parents, sister and late wife and daughter.

Sen. Biden also won the backing of retired Sen. Fritz Hollings (D-SC), an influential South Carolinian who backed Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) early on in the 2004 primaries.

U.S. Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., scored huge points — if not critical support — for his possible White House bid during a high-profile visit last week to the Galivants Ferry stump meeting.
It was a stellar performance that won Biden rave reviews.

“A terrific speech,” said Inez Tenenbaum, state superintendent of education, who lost a 2004 U.S. Senate bid to Republican Jim DeMint of Greenville.

“We just saw the next president of the United States,” State Treasurer Grady Patterson said.

Sen. Biden will travel to New Hampshire this week, home of the first in the nation primary. This will be his ‘first proper campaign swing through the state.’

Read the rest of the rest of the article here.

DoubleSpeak hopes to sit down with Sen. Biden in the coming months to discuss his run for the Democratic nomination.

Obviously, money plays a huge role in politics these days. Too big, if you ask me or most Americans. However, real campaign finance reform isn’t coming any time soon, certainly not by the 2006 or 2008 cycles.

The Washington Post did a piece today on the magic number that it will take to be competitive in the 2008 presidential elections. That number: $100 million.

Michael E. Toner, the chairman of the Federal Election Commission, has some friendly advice for presidential candidates who plan to be taken seriously by the time nominating contests start in early 2008: Bring your wallet. “There is a growing sense that there is going to be a $100 million entry fee at the end of 2007 to be considered a serious candidate,” Toner said in a recent interview.

The article discusses the public financing system, whereby campaigns get federal funds in exchange for adhering to spending limitations.

Many political operatives are expecting that the gradual breakdown of the public funding system — federal funds in exchange for spending limits — that has taken place in recent years will become complete in 2008. The result would be candidates in both parties racing far past old spending records, and facing new pressure to begin raising money far in advance of the election year.

Not all political finance experts and campaign operatives agree with Toner that raising $100 million over the next 22 months is the price of admission for candidates who want to establish credibility and compete on an equal footing. The $100 million is nearly three times the previous threshold for being regarded in national political circles as a first-tier candidate. But it is plain that a number of factors have converged that will render obsolete old assumptions about what it costs to run for president.

First among those factors is the 2004 precedent. President Bush and Democratic nominee John F. Kerry decided then to do without public matching funds in the nominating phase of the campaign — money that came with a requirement to limit spending to just $44.7 million each. They went on to raise $274.7 million and $253 million, respectively, before accepting public funding for the general election campaign in the fall. Their success established what many strategists believe will be a new norm in presidential politics.

What’s more, many analysts believe that 2008 will be a clash of such titanic intensity that the nominees will reject public funding — and the spending limits that govern it — even for the fall campaign. If so, most bets are that each major-party candidate would need to raise in excess of $400 million by the Nov. 4, 2008, election. Candidates would want to raise as much of that money as early as possible, so as not to waste precious campaign time holding fundraisers.

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) is expected to bank $100 million by the end of 2007 and experts suggest that any legitimate challenger to her would have to raise $35 to $40 million to wage strong campaigns in Iowa and New Hampshire.

This is an interesting article and it confirms what we already know: the race for the White House in 2008 has already started, and candidates who hope to stay competitive better get used to the ‘rubber chicken circuit.’ They should start saving their pennies now!

By the way, check out Gov. Warner’s new Political Action Committee (PAC) website, Forward Together. It has some interesting and pretty cool features.