If you’re not already a regular reader of Nate Silver’s election analysis over at FiveThirtyEight.com then you’re truly missing out. Silver is best known for creating the modern baseball statistic of PECOTA, a system for forecasting future player performance. This year he’s turned his talent towards electoral forecasting and today he’s got some analysis of the state of play in Georgia. He believes that Obama is already ahead in Georgia based on early voting.

Perhaps the only happy consequence of the segregation era is that a number of Southern states like Georgia are required by the Voting Rights Act to keep statistics on registration and turnout by the race of the voter. Those statistics suggest that black voter registration is up materially from 2004.

Here are the numbers. In November 2004, black voters represented 27.4 percent of Georgia’s active registered voter pool. As of October 1st, that figure has increased to 29.0 percent.

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So suppose that by tonight, black voters have increased to 30 percent of Georgia’s registered voter pool. Plugging that 30 percent number in, McCain’s advantage is a mere 1 point.

Think these numbers sound unreasonable? Early voting is underway in Georgia, and according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, black voters do not represent 30 percent of Georgia’s early voter turnout. Instead, they represent almost 40 percent. Although early voting figures can be idiosyncratic, Barack Obama certainly seems to be having little trouble getting his vote out. Indeed, Barack Obama is winning Georgia right now.

Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D-GA) goes down, hard. Congratulations to the next Congressman from the Georgia 4th - Hank Johnson.

Political Wire has more…

Crazed cop-beater/Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney is once again in big political trouble. A new Insider Advantage Poll has McKinney badly trailing her runoff opponent, DeKalb County Commissioner Hank Johnson.

After publicly suggesting that George W. Bush had foreknowledge of the 9/11 attacks, voters in Georgia’s 4th Congressional District rejected McKinney’s brand of racial demagoguery in 2002 and instead elected Democrat Denise Majette to represent them. Luckily for McKinney, Majette left the House after just one term to wage an ill-advised, losing campaign for U.S. Senate in 2004, allowing McKinney to reclaim her House seat.

This year, the punditocracy thought McKinney would easily vanquish the lesser-known Johnson. The chattering class was wrong: after garnering less than 50% in the primary on July 18, Johnson and McKinney duke it out in an August 8 run-off.

Hank Johnson, on the other hand, promises “to restore respect to progressivism.” That’s a promise DoubleSpeak likes.

Looks like Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D-GA), who is facing her first election since the “smack heard ’round the world” will face have to have a runoff with Hank Johnson, her closest competitor in the race.

From ABCNews:

McKinney, the state’s first black woman elected to Congress, is seeking her seventh term after a scuffle in March with an officer who stopped her when he didn’t recognize her as she entered a House office building. A federal grand jury in Washington declined to indict the congresswoman, but she had to apologize on the floor of the House.

Johnson, a former county commissioner, has roots in McKinney’s core constituency. With 95 percent of precincts reporting, 1,540 votes separated the two. They face an Aug. 8 runoff, and the winner will face Republican nominee Catherine Davis in the heavily Democratic district.

“The battle’s engaged and I intend to win,” said McKinney early Wednesday.

Check out Angela Moore’s (D) website. She is running for Secretary of State in Georgia. Make sure you turn up your speakers.