If you’re not already a regular reader of Nate Silver’s election analysis over at FiveThirtyEight.com then you’re truly missing out. Silver is best known for creating the modern baseball statistic of PECOTA, a system for forecasting future player performance. This year he’s turned his talent towards electoral forecasting and today he’s got some analysis of the state of play in Georgia. He believes that Obama is already ahead in Georgia based on early voting.

Perhaps the only happy consequence of the segregation era is that a number of Southern states like Georgia are required by the Voting Rights Act to keep statistics on registration and turnout by the race of the voter. Those statistics suggest that black voter registration is up materially from 2004.

Here are the numbers. In November 2004, black voters represented 27.4 percent of Georgia’s active registered voter pool. As of October 1st, that figure has increased to 29.0 percent.

…

So suppose that by tonight, black voters have increased to 30 percent of Georgia’s registered voter pool. Plugging that 30 percent number in, McCain’s advantage is a mere 1 point.

Think these numbers sound unreasonable? Early voting is underway in Georgia, and according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, black voters do not represent 30 percent of Georgia’s early voter turnout. Instead, they represent almost 40 percent. Although early voting figures can be idiosyncratic, Barack Obama certainly seems to be having little trouble getting his vote out. Indeed, Barack Obama is winning Georgia right now.